China Phenol Market Weekly Deep Analysis (2026.6.29-7.5): Weak balance game between maintenance support and shrinking demand.

1. Price Trends and Core Contradictions

This week, China's phenol market showed a pattern of "first up and then stabilized. Affected by the U. S.-Iran agreement landing driven crude oil, pure benzene oversold rebound, East China spot prices rebounded from 7400 yuan/ton at the end of the month to more than 7600 yuan/ton, July 3 fell back to the negotiation reference 7550-7600 yuan/ton (business benchmark price of 7562.50 yuan/ton, week-on-week plus 1.3). Due to regional maintenance support, Shandong region quoted a price of 7800-7900 yuan/ton, a premium of 200-300 yuan/ton over East China-this price difference was significantly wider than that of May-June, reflecting that the regional mismatch of China's phenolic ketone production capacity layout is aggravating the difference in short-term supply elasticity, and it is worth cross-regional traders to focus on arbitrage windows.

for overseas buyers, it is necessary to understand that the essence of this round of rebound is cost-side repair rather than demand-driven :WTI crude oil at $70/barrel repeatedly volatile, pure benzene East China spot reported 6710-6850 yuan/ton (week-on-week plus 5.7%), but the rebound momentum has been significantly weakened. This means that the current price support is not strong, once the geo premium further subsides, cost support may quickly collapse.

2. supply side: maintenance peak hedge not loss-driven negative

is the annual maintenance peak of phenol ketone in China. According to the calculation of Baichuan Yingfu, the loss of export reached 57000 tons, accounting for 27.1 percent of the total monthly export sales, the highest value in the year. The main maintenance devices include Yangzhou Shiyou (320000 tons/year), Shanghai Gaohua (400000 tons/year), Ningbo Taihua (minus 50%) and Huizhou Zhongxin (full-line parking). Industry starts fell from 75 per cent in mid-June to 67.5 per cent on July 3, close to the second lowest level of the year.

worth noting that the main reason for the decline in this round of construction is that the industry's deep losses forced the initiative to reduce the negative rather than simply planned maintenance-Longzhong information monitoring shows that the single-ton loss of phenolic ketone enterprises has expanded to -1052 yuan/ton (634 yuan larger than June 26-418 yuan), approaching the historical extreme. This suggests that overseas supply chain managers: short-term supply tightening has a "passive stop-loss" attribute, if the price rebound continues to be weak, do not rule out the possibility of further expansion of the scope of maintenance, but also means that once the profit repair, production capacity may quickly return.

3. demand side: the whole industry chain deep loss of negative feedback loop

downstream demand is the core factor limiting the price rebound. The average monthly loss of bisphenol A (accounting for 45% of consumption) in the largest downstream expanded to 1374 yuan/ton (month-on-month +543 yuan) in June, with the operating rate falling to 69.79 percent. Phenolic resin entered the traditional off-season, with only 40%-50% under construction. MMA and isopropanol operating rates fell 5.9 and 17.39 percentage points month-on-month respectively.

phenol-bisphenol A price difference has narrowed sharply from 1500-2000 yuan/ton in the same period last year to 700-800 yuan/ton, and there is almost no profit margin in the processing link. This forms a key industry chain risk signal: if BPA companies are forced to park centrally, their demand reduction may exceed the supply reduction from phenol's own overhaul, thus fully hedging the current supply-side benefit-which is the biggest source of uncertainty in this week's market judgment.

4. Inventory and International Trade Dynamics

Jiangyin port inventory of 23800 tons, a small accumulation of 22000 tons at the end of June, mainly due to the concentration of imports in June (South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Japan mainly). On the export side, international supply increased after the resumption of installations in the Middle East, China's export price advantage narrowed, and exports faced downward pressure in the second half of the year.

5. outlook and operational recommendations

Short-term (1-2 weeks): East China prices are expected to maintain a narrow range of 7350-7650 yuan/ton, neutral and empty. Medium-term (July-August): July inspection support market, August inspection device centralized resumption of production superimposed off-season demand, price center or synchronous downward movement.

: WTI crude oil 70 USD mark, bisphenol A start 65% warning line, pure benzene 6500-6700 yuan support level, port inventory 30000 tons warning line. It is recommended that traders adopt a "contract-based, spot flexible, fast-forward and fast-out" strategy to maintain 7-10 days of safety inventory, pay close attention to whether the expansion of BPA losses triggered the core risk variable of centralized parking.