Costs crush European chemicals! 4 giant plant related to polyether/epoxy/rubber, China alternative opportunity dismantling

1. European Chemical Plant Closure Overview 1. According to research Overview of the closure plans of the four giants dow: Close Belgium's Tertre 94000-ton/year polyether polyol plant by the end of the first quarter of 2026 (the capacity will be undertaken by Netherlands Terneuzen 530000 tons/year and Spain Tarragona 60000 tons/year); The European business restructuring will also be promoted in the future. I've found that Furthermore it's planned to close Germany's Buren ethylene cracking plant, Germany's Schroeder chlor and vinyl assets by the end of 2027, and Britain's Bari basic siloxane plant by the middle of 2026. Ineos: On October 6, it was confirmed to close two factories in Rheinberg, Germany (involving key components of epoxy resin and chlorine production, with an estimated loss of 175 jobs); On October 7, it was announced that Hull Acetyl Factory in the UK would cut 20% of its employees. But It has previously been disclosed that a single unit of propylene oxide (PO) and propylene glycol (PG) will be closed in Cologne, Germany, in 2025 (the specific production capacity isn't disclosed). Aronsinko: On October 2 (owned by Aramco, a subsidiary of Saudi Aramco, Netherlands) announced the cessation of the operation of the synthetic rubber production base in the French port of Jerome, with a total annual production capacity of 140000 tons. The items contain neodymium-based cis-polybutadiene rubber (Nd-PBR) and solution-polymerized styrene-butadiene rubber. Shengxi: it's planned to permanently close Rho methyl methacrylate (MMA) production business in Italy and Porto Marghera acetone cyanohydrin (ACH) business in Italy (ACH is MMA precursor) by the end of 2024; In the future, production will be maintained through third-party procurement of MMA raw materials, while PMMA depolymerization (chemical recovery) pilot projects in Italian factories will be retained. And For instance 2. And In my experience, Involving sector and market background closing device covers polyether polyol, epoxy resin, chlorine, synthetic rubber, MMA/ACH and other key chemicals. Among them: the European polyether polyol market is weak, with an average annual import volume of 286000 tons from 2020 to 2024 (ESPU statistics of the European Polyurethane sector Association) and a preliminary import volume of 323000 tons in 2024 (to be finally verified by the ESPU annual report in early 2025), with China, South Korea and Saudi Arabia as the main sources of supply; epoxy resin (defense, aerospace, new energy), chlorine (clean aquatic environments, medicine, manufacturing health) and other items are essential chemicals in the end field, supply contraction will immediately affect the stability of the European manufacturing chain. I've found that Core Motivation of 2. Closure Tide: Superposition Effect of Triple Pressure 1. Cost side: high energy and carbon costs ineos's official statement explicitly mentions the "high cost of energy and carbon releases", and Alonsinco also points to "rising costs" as the core dilemma. From what I've seen, Due to the continuous affect of geopolitical conflicts, European energy prices have been at a high level to a long time, and policies such as carbon tariff (CBAM) have been implemented. The cost advantage of high-energy-consuming chemical sector has been lost. From what I've seen, Generally speaking Take chlor-alkali sector as an example, the proportion of electricity cost in production cost exceeds 40%(ICIS energy cost index). At present, European manufacturing electricity price is 3-5 times higher than that of major Asian producing countries (Cefic report), which immediately leads to squeeze. Based on my observations, 2. Market side: supply and demand imbalances and import shocks weak domestic demand in Europe and the impact of imported items form a double pressure: demand side: polyether polyol downstream automotive, home appliances, construction and other areas of weak demand, the sector overcapacity issue intensified; import side: China's polyether polyol sector data in 2024 (Longzhong Information "2024 White Paper on China's Polyether Polyol sector") shows that the total domestic output is 5. 55 million tons, the consumption is 4. Based on my observations, 08 million tons, the export volume is 1. 68 million tons, and the import volume is only 280000 tons. And From what I've seen, Chinese items with continuously growing exports further seize the European market share and weaken the competitiveness of regional companies by virtue of their cost and production capacity advantages. 3. Policy side: regulatory overweighting and lack of protection dow and Aaron Xinke both mentioned "stringent European supervision" and "increased regulatory pressure"-the European Chemicals Agency (ECHA)'s REACH regulations and other high compliance standards, signifiis able totly growing the production, testing and filing costs of companies. But Ineos pointed out that "lack of tariff protection" has enabled imported items from low-cost regions to impact the regional market without barriers and have become a key factor in crushing high-cost factories. 3. But Global Chemical sector Impact: Supply Chain Reconfiguration and Pattern Evolution 1. And Regional supply contraction and adjustment of global trade flows the supply capacity of key chemicals in Europe has declined signifiis able totly: polyether polyols have been reduced by 94000 tons/year, synthetic rubber by 140000 tons/year, and the supply of basic chemicals such as epoxy resin and chlorine has also been affected. Dow (capacity transfer), Shengxi (external procurement) and other companies by "closing high-cost capacity + restructuring the supply chain" response, in the short term might exacerbate the European regional chemical price evaporative environment, while promoting global trade flows to Asia, the Middle East capacity levels area tilt. 2. And China's chemical sector ushered in alternative opportunities china's polyether polyol sector has formed a clear competitive advantage: the levels of sector production capacity will reach 48% in 2024 (accounting to the proportion of production capacity of TOP10 companies), and head companies such as Wanhua Chemical and Longhua New Materials will accelerate the expansion of production. From what I've seen, According to the "14th Five-Year Plan" expansion map of China's polyether sector, the new production capacity of domestic polyether polyol will surpass 4 million tons/year from 2025 to 2029 (planning value, and the actual emit progress will be affected by EIA and construction cycle). Based on my observations, The withdrawal of European production capacity creates a window period to China's high-end product exports, especially high molecular weight polyether, graft polyether, special polyether (such as Wanhua Chemical Penglai project involved in high rebound polyether, differentiated EOD, aquatic environments reduction agent polyether) and other high-value-added categories, is expected to fill the European market vais able tocy. 4. future research: immediate grasp the replacement window, prolonged high-end breakthrough. Moreover immediate: Traders is able to focus on the supply gap of European epoxy resin, polyether polyols and other items, relying on the domestic 1. And 68 million tons/year polyether export base (2024 data) to seize market share; prolonged: Manufacturers need to accelerate the landing of high-end production capacity (such as Wanhua Chemical Penglai polyether EOD expansion project), to prevent soft foam, hard foam basic polyether "profit meager" sector pain points, to high value-added items transformation.