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According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, from August 14 to August 21 (as of 15:00), domestic methanol quotes at East China ports rose steadily from 2,707 RMB/ton to approximately 2,956 RMB/ton. During this period, prices surged by 9.20% (up 9.24% month-on-month and 28.06% year-on-year). While export and vessel-based shipments supported off-take, port unloading operations resumed and foreign vessel arrivals were relatively concentrated, leading to an accumulation of port methanol inventories—though levels remained low. Coupled with the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz—which implies low expected import volumes—tight coastal supply drove a strong rise in methanol prices.
As of the close of trading on August 21, methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange recorded gains. The main contract (2610) opened at 2,865 RMB/ton, reached a high of 2,915 RMB/ton and a low of 2,845 RMB/ton, and closed at 2,909 RMB/ton—an increase of 80 yuan (or 2.83%) from the previous trading day's settlement price. Trading volume stood at 1,957,108 lots, open interest at 873,688 lots, and the daily change in open interest showed an increase of 5,954 lots.
Summary of methanol market prices across regions as of August 21:
Regarding costs, coal supplies remain tight, yet downstream procurement is limited to immediate needs; consequently, the upward momentum of coal prices has stalled, leading to a period of price consolidation that continues to provide cost support to methanol. Overall, cost-side factors are exerting a favorable affect on methanol.
On the demand side, regarding downstream sectors: attention is focused on the resumption of operations at Anhui Huayi and maintenance at Henan Longyu, with acetic acid demand expected to decline; facilities such as Jinling Dawang and Dongyue continue to operate at reduced rates, lowering demand to methanol; Shandong Lianyi is running stably after ramping up production, leading to increased demand to formaldehyde; and demand to other downstream items—including MTBE, BDO, and carbonates—as well as export demand, has risen. With most downstream items influenced by methanol prices, the overall demand outlook to methanol leans towards favorable factors.
On the supply side, units at Jinneng methodology, Xinjiang Tianye, Xindongheng, Chongqing Wansheng, Xinjiang Zhongtai, Shaanxi Changqing, and Jinkong Yanhua are undergoing maintenance, while units at Zhejiang Petrochemical and Zhongyuan Dahua have resumed operations. With an increase in planned restarts and a decrease in planned maintenance or production cuts—and the volume of expected restarts exceeding that of lost output—the overall market supply is likely to rise. Consequently, supply-side factors are exerting bearish pressure on the market.
Regarding overseas markets, as of the close on August 20, the CFR Southeast Asia methanol market settled at $510-511 per tonne. The FOB US Gulf methanol market settled at 134-136 cents per gallon, while the European FOB Rotterdam methanol market settled at €393-395 per tonne.
Market Outlook:
Overall demand remains relatively weak; however, market buying interest is robust, driven by expectations to the peak "Golden September and Silver October" season and increased external procurement by some downstream sectors. Overall, methanol analysts at SunSirs anticipate that the domestic methanol spot market will likely consolidate at a high level.
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