1. core quantitative target: the proportion of high-end chemical industry increased by 12 percentage points in five years.
In September 2026, the Department of Industry and Information Technology of Shandong Province of China issued the "Implementation Plan for the Development of High-end Chemical Industry in Shandong Province during the 15th Five-Year Plan (Draft for Solicitation of Comments)" and publicly solicited opinions. High-end chemical industry is listed as the "top ten industries" in Shandong's new and old kinetic energy conversion, and is included in the nine advantageous industries of the "6997" modern industrial system. This document will guide the transformation of the chemical industry in Shandong, China in the next five years, and profoundly affect the domestic chemical supply chain and international Trade pattern.
The plan sets hard quantitative indicators: by 2030, the average annual growth rate of the added value of the chemical industry in Shandong Province will remain above 5%, and the proportion of high-end chemicals in the chemical industry in the province will increase to about 65%. There are clear ladder targets for industrial upgrading: high-end chemical industry accounts for 52.5 percent in 2024, more than 53 percent in 2025, and more than 60 percent in 2026, with a total increase of about 12 percentage points in five years. This indicator indicates that Shandong Chemical has shifted from scale expansion to structural optimization, with the core direction of reducing inefficient basic chemical production capacity, focusing on the development of new chemical materials and fine chemicals, and promoting the transformation of the industry from fuel-based to material-based. Prior to the "14th Five-Year Plan" related targets have been exceeded, laying the foundation for a new round of industrial restructuring.
The status quo of the 2. industry: the volume of the country's leading, but the structural short board is significant.
The scale of China's Shandong chemical industry has ranked first in China for more than 30 consecutive years. It is the domestic core refining and chemical base and the world's largest tire production base. The crude oil processing volume, synthetic rubber, and tire output are all the first in the country. In 2020, the revenue of Shandong regulated chemical enterprises is about 1.9 trillion yuan, and in 2025 it will exceed 3.2 trillion yuan, accounting for nearly 30% of the province's regulated industrial revenue.
But the industrial structural short board outstanding. China's Shandong Dongying, Binzhou two crude oil processing capacity of a total of 0.1277 billion tons/year, accounting for nearly 14% of the country's total refining capacity, long-term to refined oil and other fuel products, high value-added chemical products supply is insufficient. With the popularity of new energy vehicles, domestic demand for refined oil downward, refined oil annual surplus of more than 40 million tons, refining profits continue to be under pressure, the Yellow River Delta region in 2026 more than 60% of refining and basic chemical enterprises in continuous monthly losses. At the same time, there is a supply gap in high-end materials, domestic electronic chemicals self-sufficiency rate of less than 80%, high-end polyolefin self-sufficiency rate of less than 60%, import substitution space is broad.
3. Policy Landing Brings Three Major Industrial Pattern Changes
(I) refining comprehensively promotes "oil conversion" and integrates production capacity reduction
65% high-end target to determine the direction of refining capacity reduction integration. After the landing of key projects such as China Qilu Petrochemical Lu Oil, Fuhai Aromatics Low-carbon Reconstruction, Dongming Petrochemical Refining Integration, large coastal refining bases overlay Dongying and Heze industrial clusters, reshaping the supply pattern in the province. The traditional refining mode of pure production of refined oil is difficult to sustain, and the transformation to new materials enterprises has become a trend.
(II) regional dislocation layout to avoid homogeneous competition in the province
the program relies on local resource endowments to re-plan industrial space, guide the differentiated development of different parks, and reduce duplication of construction.
(III) innovation and green double constraints, accelerate the elimination of backward production capacity
shandong plans to build 7 provincial-level chemical pilot bases, set up a green channel for pilot approval, build a national polyurethane, a national hydrogen energy material innovation center, and tackle key materials such as metallocene polyethylene, POE, cyclic olefin copolymer, electronic-grade photoresist, etc. At the same time, the target of 2030 carbon peak, the construction of zero-carbon park, the promotion of green electricity, and the promotion of solid waste recycling. New projects priority layout compliance chemical park, small inefficient capacity will accelerate the clearance.
4. all kinds of business opportunities and pressure
chain main head enterprises ushered in expansion opportunities: China Yantai Wanhua Chemical Base plans to build the world's top isocyanate industry cluster, its POE industry chain in line with the policy direction; Dongming Petrochemical crude oil direct cracking olefin project to obtain policy support, high-quality refining leader has a transformation channel.
Small and medium-sized refining and basic chemical enterprises are under pressure, energy consumption and carbon emission control raise compliance costs, and enterprises lacking high value-added products may be merged or withdrawn.
Specialized new materials enterprises to obtain support, can share pilot, testing platform, electronic materials, carbon fiber and other track industrialization cycle is expected to shorten.
Suggestions on Practical Operation of 5. Chemical Trade and Production Enterprises
overseas supply chain practitioners, domestic manufacturers can refer to three major strategies: to avoid basic chemical, refined oil new capacity investment.
At present, the program is still in the stage of soliciting opinions, indicators and rules may be adjusted, domestic and foreign manufacturers, chemical traders need to continue to follow up the policy landing, timely adjustment of procurement, stocking and customer layout.
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