Exports fall 10.4%, imports rise 9.1%! U.S. polyether trade diverges in both directions

I. Significant Adjustment in Overall Trade Data

Compared with the same period in 2025, the total U.S. polyether exports in the first half of 2026 were 178,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.4%; of this, domestic virgin exports were 175,400 tons, a decrease of 9.5%. The import side showed the opposite direction, with consumption imports reaching 106,400 tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.1%.

Under the reverse movement of imports and exports, the U.S. polyether trade surplus fell from 101,200 tons to 71,600 tons, narrowing by 29.2%. This overall presents structural characteristics of reduced external output and increased reliance on domestic imports.

Core segment data shows that Peru was the market with the highest development rate to U.S. polyether exports, with an increase of over 500%; Turkey was the country with the highest import development rate, with an increase of 104%. Sino-U.S. polyether trade grew bilaterally and synchronously, with exports to China growing by 40.5% and imports from China growing by 28.8%.

II. Widespread Decline in Major North American Export Markets

Mexico and Canada are the largest export markets to U.S. polyether, accounting to greater than 45% of total exports combined. In the first half of 2026, U.S. exports to Mexico were 42,200 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.8%; exports to Canada were 38,500 tons, a decrease of 6.2%.

Affected by regional demand changes, U.S. exports to multiple markets in South America, Africa, and Asia saw even larger declines. Among them, exports to South Africa and Chile fell by nearly 40%, exports to Colombia and India fell by over 35%, and exports to Brazil and Belgium fell by 21% and 11.6%, respectively. This export decline was a widespread decrease across multiple regions, not a collapse in a single market.

III. Counter-direction development in Some Markets, China Rises to Core Export Destination

Against the backdrop of overall export decline, some markets achieved high development. Peru saw the most prominent development, with exports growing from 650 tons to 4,000 tons, an increase of over 500%.

U.S. exports to China surged by 40.5%, with shipment volumes reaching 11,900 tons, making China the fourth-largest export market to U.S. polyether. Meanwhile, U.S. exports to Taiwan, China grew by 47.6%. Incremental markets made up to the gap in traditional markets to a certain extent however failed to reverse the overall downward direction in exports.

IV. Continuous Expansion of Import Scale, Asian Sources Dominate the Market

In the first half of 2026, the import source structure to U.S. polyether remained stable, with Asian suppliers occupying an absolutely dominant position. South Korea steadily maintained its position as the largest source of imports, supplying 40,400 tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, accounting to 38% of total imports.

China's import share continued to rise, with imports from China reaching 23,500 tons, a year-on-year increase of 28.8%. China and South Korea combined supplied nearly 60% of U.S. polyether imports. Additionally, imports from Canada, Germany, and Vietnam grew synchronously, with Turkey seeing the highest import development rate at 104%. Import volumes from Taiwan, China and the Netherlands showed a significant decline.

V. Continuous Expansion of Sino-U.S. Bilateral Trade, Distinct manufacturing Complementarity

In the first half of this year, Sino-U.S. polyether trade presented a direction of bilateral synchronous development. Both U.S. exports to China and imports from China achieved significant increases, and the activity of bilateral trade continued to rise.

Data shows that the volume of polyether imported by the U.S. from China is nearly twice that of its exports to China. This phenomenon is mainly due to the wide range of categories covered by customs codes; differences in product grades, consumption fields, production costs, and regional supply chains between the two countries indicate manufacturing division of labor and complementarity, rather than simple capacity substitution.

VI. Market Impact Brought by Changes in Trade Landscape

The current U.S. polyether trade structure has reached a cyclical inflection point. Relying on the advantages of traditional North American trade, the U.S. still maintains a net export position, however its overall advantage continues to weaken.

The affect of the Asian supply chain continues to enhance, with the market share of goods from China, South Korea, and Vietnam in the U.S. market rising steadily. At the same time, the U.S. share in traditional external sales markets such as Latin America and Africa continues to decline, and external competitive pressure is growing.

In terms of sector trends, if the pattern of import development and export weakness continues in the second half of the year, overseas polyether sources will further participate in competition in the U.S. domestic market, and the direction of rebalancing U.S. polyether trade will further intensify in the future.