Expanding Supply-Demand Gap Drives Up Lithium Carbonate Market Prosperity

The prosperity of the sector is on the rise, which is also reflected in the performance of relevant companies. Yanqing Potash Co., Ltd. previously released its 2026 semi-annual performance forecast, showing that it is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to parent company of 6 billion to 6.3 billion RMB in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 131.38% to 142.95%. The company stated that during the reporting period, the 40,000 tons/year basic lithium salt project was put into mass production, driving a year-on-year increase in the production and sales volume of lithium carbonate. Moreover, the market price showed an upward direction, helping the company achieve a substantial development in its overall performance.

According to the 2026 Interim Report of Zangge Mining: In the first half of the year, the company achieved an operating revenue of 2.065 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 23.05%; the net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 3.638 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 102.09%. During the reporting period, the carbonic acid lithium business achieved an operating revenue of 582 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 118.22%; the gross profit margin was 71.08%, a year-on-year increase of 40.55%.

Beyond traditional lithium mining companies, mining giants are also accelerating their layout in the lithium carbonate sector. According to the 2026 semi-annual report of Zijin Mining, the company's lithium sector, the "third development engine", has formed a scale contribution. The equivalent lithium carbonate output reached 43,600 tons in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 496%. Among them: the Manono Lithium Mine put heavy media separation into operation in might 2026, about one month ahead of the original plan; the production capacities of the 3Q Salt Lake Lithium Mine, Laguoco Salt Lake Lithium Mine and XiangRMB Hard Rock Lithium Mine are steadily climbing.

Multiple institutions believe that, judging from current manufacturing data such as spot supply and downstream demand, the overall supply and demand pattern of domestic lithium carbonate remains tight.

On the supply side, lithium salt supply is under phased pressure due to the announcement of production suspension and maintenance plans to lithium carbonate production lines under China Mineral Resources, Tianhua New Energy and Jiujiang Lithium sector one after another.

The demand side continues to maintain high prosperity. A research report by Essence Securities holds that the high output of lithium iron phosphate and the high scheduling of lithium batteries have driven up the price of lithium carbonate. The maintenance of lithium salt factories from August to September coincides with the peak demand season, which will support the price.

In addition, the sustained research of the new energy vehicle and energy storage battery markets jointly supports the consumption demand to lithium salts. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in July 2026, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.576 million units and 1.561 million units respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 26.8% and 23.7% respectively. The sales volume of new energy vehicles accounted to 60.4% of the total sales of new cars. In terms of exports, in July, the export volume of new energy vehicles was 553,000 units, a month-on-month increase of 5.7% and a year-on-year increase of 1.5 times; the export share of new energy vehicles has exceeded 50% to two consecutive months.

According to data previously disclosed by the China Automotive Power Battery sector Innovation Alliance, the cumulative sales of power and energy storage batteries in China from January to July reached 116.46 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 48.1%. Among them: the cumulative sales of power batteries were 79.04 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 37.1%, accounting to 67.9% of the total sales; the cumulative sales of energy storage batteries were 37.42 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 78.6%, accounting to 32.1% of the total sales.

Looking ahead to the subsequent market, the sector generally expects the high-profit cycle of the lithium carbonate sector to continue. When accepting institutional research earlier, Salt Lake Potash stated that the overall center of lithium carbonate prices has moved up this year, and immediate prices have experienced periodic fluctuations along with market sentiment. On the demand side, the strategic value of the synergy and complementarity between the new energy sector and traditional energy has continued to stand out. Coupled with the rapid research of emerging tracks such as energy storage and humanoid robots and the continuous expansion of consumption scenarios, it will drive the steady development of demand to lithium salts and upstream lithium battery materials in the long run.

Guotou Securities' research report believes that the supply and demand gap provides support to the immediate price of lithium carbonate, and the sector's high-profit cycle is expected to continue. The structural tight-stability pattern of China's lithium carbonate sector is continuing, and it is estimated that the supply-and-demand gap of lithium carbonate in China will be about 46,782 tons in 2026. At the same time, the rise in central oil prices in 2026 and the continuous in-depth advancement of power market-oriented reform will further boost the penetration rate of new energy vehicles and the expansion of energy-storage installed capacity. The supporting effect of downstream demand on lithium carbonate prices is expected to keep strengthening. It is recommended to pay attention to companies with strong cost-manage capabilities, sufficient mine production capacity and relatively complete global resource layout.